Name: Frontier Score for "Amazon carbon emissions driven by human actions amplified by droughts"
Rating: 66
Author: Frontier

What it is

The Amazon's carbon sink is weakening as deforestation, rising tree mortality and climate change disrupt the climatic conditions that sustain a humid tropical forest. Forest loss reduces rainfall, raises temperatures and lengthens the dry season, driving higher carbon emissions; climate stress is stronger in more deforested regions, making forests progressively more flammable, and large-scale climate events such as El Niño amplify the regional impacts. The authors analysed 15 years of Amazonian carbon fluxes derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements. They determine a carbon balance of 0.32 ± 0.08 petagrams of carbon a year (PgC, a petagram being a billion tonnes), with fires the dominant source at 0.40 ± 0.07 PgC a year and forest uptake increasingly unable to offset emissions. Investigating the drivers of the region's carbon emissions, they identify distinct groups of years. Wetter years with little human activity such as deforestation, biomass burning and degradation (2011 to 2014, 2017 and 2018) show the Amazon's role in the global carbon balance at 0.11 ± 0.08 PgC a year. Years with low climatic stress from 2019 to 2022 show emissions from human activities, mainly deforestation and degradation, of 0.43 ± 0.13 PgC a year. Warm, dry years of high climate stress (2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024), such as El Niño years and years of Tropical North Atlantic warming, associated with biomass burning, have the highest emissions, 0.49 ± 0.07 PgC a year.

Fig. 1 of the paper: Aircraft sampling region of influence. — Fig. 1 from the paperAircraft sampling region of influence.Luciana V. Gatti et al., Nature (2026), under CC BY 4.0, shown unaltered.

Why it matters

Across 15 years of Amazon air measurements, fires were the main carbon source, and emissions were highest in warm, dry years, at 0.49 ± 0.07 billion tonnes of carbon a year. The Amazon's carbon sink is weakening as deforestation, rising tree mortality and climate change disrupt the conditions a humid tropical forest needs. The authors find a carbon balance of 0.32 ± 0.08 billion tonnes a year, fires contributing 0.40 ± 0.07, with forest uptake increasingly unable to offset emissions. Wetter years with little deforestation, burning and degradation came to 0.11 ± 0.08; 2019 to 2022, years of low climate stress, reached 0.43 ± 0.13 from human activities, mainly deforestation and degradation.

Underlined numbers link to their source. Every metric and quoted figure is listed under Sources and data below.

Filed underFire effects on ecosystems, Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics, Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

Scored 2026-10-25How scoring works

The Frontier Score, in full

How this entry's score is built, term by term. Open any pillar to see each sub-metric's raw value, how it maps to 0 to 100, and a link to its source (OpenAlex for most sub-metrics that combine several sources, NIH iCite where its ratio is part of field-normalized impact).

The three pillars as one shape: a result strong on every axis fills the triangle.

How the Frontier Score is calculated for this breakthrough
Term	Score	Weight	Points
EvidenceHow established and verifiable the result is.	89	× 0.25	22.3
ImpactHow much the result matters, judged field-relative and by current momentum.	46	× 0.25	11.6
NoveltyHow genuinely new the result is, and how fast-moving.	66	× 0.50	32.8
Weighted pillars			66.7
Frontier recency0 months since publication		× 0.99
IntegrityNot retracted		× 1
Frontier Score			66

Confidence: Early signalEarly signal: little citation history yet, so impact is an estimate and may shift as the work is taken up.

Every sub-metric, traced to its source

EvidenceHow established and verifiable the result is.89

Evidence sub-metrics
Sub-metric	Raw value	0 to 100	Weight	Points	Source
Peer review & venueWhether the work has cleared peer review, and how selective its venue is. Peer review is necessary but not sufficient: before citations accrue, a fresh result in one of the five general flagships (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM, the Lancet) is a stronger evidence signal than one in a selective specialist or society journal, which in turn outranks one in a legitimate but very high-volume mega-journal, and any of them outranks a preprint that has not been reviewed at all.Maps to 0 to 100: Peer-reviewed article graded by venue tier: flagship journal (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM, the Lancet) 100; selective journal (every other journal the index admits: the specialist journals of those families, JAMA, PNAS, Physical Review Letters and X) 90; high-volume mega-journal (Nature Communications, Science Advances) 78; venue not recorded 88. Other records: review 90, book 70, dataset 60, preprint 45, an article that has not been peer reviewed 45, other 55.	Peer-reviewed, flagship journal	100	0.30	30.0	OpenAlex type / primary_location / source
CorroborationIndependent corroboration that the result is on the record and reaching beyond a single source, read as the BREADTH of independent records rather than the size of the citation pile. Counts how many of the five independent citation indices (OpenAlex, Crossref, Semantic Scholar, OpenCitations, Europe PMC) report a citation count for the work at all, zero included, plus orthogonal, non-citation lines of corroboration: citation in Wikipedia, registered clinical trials or clinical citations, released datasets or software or a repository copy, public funding on record, and technical-community discussion. Citation MAGNITUDE is deliberately judged under Impact, not here, so Evidence and Impact measure genuinely different things instead of both rewarding the same citation pile twice.Maps to 0 to 100: Starts at 28 and rises by 9 for each of the five independent citation indices that returns a citation count for the work (zero counts; OpenCitations returns zero even for a DOI it does not hold) and by 6 for each orthogonal non-citation line (Wikipedia, clinical trials or clinical citations, open datasets, software or a repository copy, public funding, community discussion), up to the top of the 0-100 scale.	4 of 5 citation indices report a count	64	0.30	19.2	OpenAlex, Crossref, Semantic Scholar, OpenCitations, Europe PMC, DataCite, NIH RePORTER, Wikipedia, Hacker News count of indices that report a count for the work + orthogonal reach
VerifiabilityHow openly the result can be read, reused, and reproduced. Rewards open access, a Creative Commons BY or CC0 license, a green repository copy anyone can archive, openly minable full text, and released datasets or software a reader can actually run. Cross-checked across OpenAlex, Unpaywall, Europe PMC, and DataCite.Maps to 0 to 100: Closed access 45; open access 88; any Creative Commons BY license (including the NC, ND and SA variants) or CC0 100. A repository copy raises the floor to 85, openly minable full text to 90, and released data or software to 92.	Open access (hybrid), CC-BY	100	0.20	20.0	OpenAlex, Unpaywall, Europe PMC, DataCite is_oa / license / has_repository_copy / open datasets
IntegrityRetraction and post-publication correction status. A retracted result is not evidence of anything and collapses the whole Frontier Score; a correction or expression of concern is a softer flag. A correction the publisher labels as its own error (a Publisher Correction) is not a flag on the work. Read across OpenAlex and Crossref (both update-to and updated-by notices).Maps to 0 to 100: Clean 100 (also when the only notice is a Publisher Correction); a correction or expression of concern 75; retracted 0. Flagged if OpenAlex OR Crossref records the notice.	No retraction or concern on record	100	0.20	20.0	OpenAlex, Crossref is_retracted / update-to / updated-by

ImpactHow much the result matters, judged field-relative and by current momentum.46

Impact sub-metrics
Sub-metric	Raw value	0 to 100	Weight	Points	Source
Field-normalized impactImpact relative to the world average for the same field, year, and type, so a small field and a large field are judged fairly. Triangulates three independent field-normalized measures: OpenAlex's Field-Weighted Citation Impact, its citation percentile within the exact field-and-year cohort, and the NIH iCite Relative Citation Ratio. 1.0x is average; the percentile is the share of same-field, same-year work it out-cites.Maps to 0 to 100: Each ratio (1.0 = field average) maps 1.0 to 50, 3.0 to 75, 9.0 to 90; the field+year percentile maps directly (top 1% -> ~99). The available measures are averaged. When none is available yet (very recent work), this sub-metric is left out and Impact is computed from the others.	top 18% of field-year vs field	82	0.45	37.1	OpenAlex, NIH iCite fwci / citation_normalized_percentile / relative_citation_ratio
Influential citationsCitations that genuinely build on the work rather than mention it in passing (Semantic Scholar's influential-citation measure). A sharper signal of real impact than a raw count.Maps to 0 to 100: Saturating: 15 influential citations maps to 50, and none maps to 0. When Semantic Scholar has no measure for the work, this sub-metric is left out and Impact is computed from the others.	Not yet available	n/a	redistributed	0.0	Semantic Scholar influentialCitationCount
Citation velocityCitations received in the trailing twelve months (estimated from yearly citation counts: this year's so far plus the share of last year's that falls inside the window), judged as a rate rather than a lifetime total. Momentum is what a frontier index cares about: a result being taken up fast right now is landing, whether its lifetime pile is large or still small. Where an expected field citation rate is known, the momentum is also read relative to it, so a fast-moving result in a quiet field is not overlooked.Maps to 0 to 100: Saturating: 30 citations in the last twelve months maps to 50. When NIH iCite provides the field's expected rate, this is blended evenly with the ratio of observed to expected momentum.	0 in last 12 months	0	0.35	0.0	OpenAlex, NIH iCite counts_by_year / field_citation_rate

NoveltyHow genuinely new the result is, and how fast-moving.66

Novelty sub-metrics
Sub-metric	Raw value	0 to 100	Weight	Points	Source
Conceptual noveltyHow genuinely new the contribution is, measured at publication from the work's OWN content, not its date: how atypical its combination of research areas is versus all prior work, and whether it builds on a broad, deep base rather than only the newest papers in a fast-moving area. This is what separates a real advance from a recent-but-commodity result, and it needs no forward citations, so it is stable for brand-new work. An honestly noisy proxy (even state-of-the-art novelty measures agree only moderately with expert judgment), so it carries bounded weight and never drives the ranking alone.Maps to 0 to 100: Two publication-time signals, each 0-100. The primary one is atypical combination: how unusual the work's median pairing of research topics is versus the prior literature, by pointwise mutual information (a pairing made far more often than chance scores low). The second, foundational reach (the median age of the work's references and the share older than five years), can only lift it: when reach is higher, the score rises by 35% of the gap, and it is never lowered. When only one signal is measurable it is used alone; when neither is (a work too thin in topics or references), this sub-metric is left out and Novelty is computed from the other three. A review is damped to 60%.	Median topic pairing Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics x Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics (7,310 prior works made this pairing); builds on refs a median 6.0y deep	42	0.45	18.9	OpenAlex topics + referenced_works (publication-time)
RecencyHow recently the work appeared. The frontier is now, so newer scores higher.Maps to 0 to 100: Exponential decay with a 12-month half-life from the publication date.	This month	99	0.30	29.8	OpenAlex publication_date
Attention accelerationWhether attention is rising: citations in the latest full year versus the year before. Accelerating interest signals an active, opening frontier.Maps to 0 to 100: Latest/prior-year ratio: 1x maps to 50, 2x to 75, 4x to 100. The prior year counts as at least 3 citations, so a jump from one citation to a few is not read as explosive growth. With no citations in the latest full year it reads as unknown, and unknown is neutral (50).	Not enough history	50	0.10	5.0	OpenAlex counts_by_year
Edge of reviewPreprints sit ahead of the peer-review process and brand-new papers have only just cleared it. Both earn novelty here (while a preprint is discounted under Evidence), because that is where the frontier forms first.Maps to 0 to 100: Preprint 95; any other record 80 when under 6 months old, 65 under 18 months, 45 after that.	Peer-reviewed record	80	0.15	12.0	OpenAlex type / publication_date

ProvenanceAll sources

Sources and data

The source figures behind this entry, grouped by the source that holds them: up to five citation indices cross-checked, field-normalized impact, then real-world reach (Wikipedia, community discussion, clinical trials, released data and public funding) where it exists. Each value links to its record.

OpenAlex

Primary record

Field-weighted citation impact: 0.0x field average
Citation percentile: Top 18% of its field-year
Publication date: 2026-10-21
Access: Open access (hybrid)

Crossref

Citations: 0
Works it builds on: 68

OpenCitations

Citations: 0

Europe PMC

Citations: 0

Unpaywall

Reuse license: CC-BY

OpenAlex record Read it in Nature

Figures quoted in the write-up

Figure	Value	Source
Period of Amazonian carbon fluxes analysed (Derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements)	15 years	Nature
Amazon carbon balance over the period (Forest uptake becoming increasingly unable to offset emissions)	0.32 ± 0.08 PgC yr−1	Nature
Carbon from fires, the dominant source (Over the same period)	0.40 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1	Nature
Amazon carbon balance in wetter years with low human activity (2011-2014, 2017 and 2018) (Low deforestation, biomass burning and degradation)	0.11 ± 0.08 PgC yr−1	Nature
Amazon carbon emissions from human activities in years with low climatic stress (2019-2022) (Mainly deforestation and degradation)	0.43 ± 0.13 PgC yr−1	Nature
Amazon carbon emissions in warm and dry years (2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024) (The highest of the year groups; high climate stress such as El Niño and Tropical North Atlantic warming, associated with biomass burning)	0.49 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1	Nature

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What it is

Why it matters

The Frontier Score, in full

Sources and data

OpenAlex

Crossref

OpenCitations

Europe PMC

Unpaywall

Show this score where your work lives

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